Reasons to be positive!

Checking through my stats I found some reasons to be positive. Here goes.

1) US fatality rate is improving.

Fewer people who test positive are dying from the virus – both in numbers and in percentages.

In the early stage of COVID in the US, average daily deaths were well over 1500 per day – and as high as 2700. Case data was probably heavily under reported and so fatality percentages are not reliable at that time. You can see this in the chart – with percentages exceeding 10%.

Then through June – we we at an average of about 800 or so deaths per day. The fatality rate (blue line) was more consistent at about 3.3%.

Now when we look at the last month, the fatality rate has halved to about 1.6%. Average daily deaths over the same period are approximately 1,000. However for the last 17 days – average daily deaths have fallen below 1,000.

Summary: Fewer people who get COVID are dying.

2) Many counties have substantially improved

We can provide evidence for that in my “Worst Counties of America” chart. Recall in late July that over 200 large counties were on this list. Now only 75 counties are on the list! The criteria is population > 100,000 and daily new cases per million greater than 200.

Whereas at one time Florida and Arizona led the way, in this report, Florida now only has 3 large counties with elevated COVID levels. Well done Florida. Arizona has no large counties on the list. Amazing Arizona! Keep it up. My home state of Tennessee has only 1 county on the list (Knox). My home county of Davidson – once in the top 10 in the US – is now no longer on the list!!

It seems like more and more counties across America have realized that wearing masks, and social distancing works. Lets help get that message to the last remaining hot spots…..

Current hot spots:

• Wisconsin now has the most counties with elevated levels of COVID. See this link for more info
• Hidalgo, Texas remains the county with the highest fatality levels – still experiencing about 20 deaths per million per day.
• Clarke county, Georgia has the highest levels of new cases – at about 1,000 per million per day!

In summary

We may not be getting this message from the media – but the gradual improvement IS getting results – and the fatality rate, and number of people dying is falling.

Mask up people!