France is now half the level of US for new COVID cases

In perhaps a sign that swift action, and curfews works, France has seen a remarkable reduction in the number of daily new covid cases.

At the peak, around Nov 8th – France was averaging over 840 new covid cases, per million of population per day. That figure is now around 200.

The fatalities curve in France is just starting to flatten – but has not come down sufficiently yet. As you can see from the chart, about 8.4 deaths per million per day – just down slightly from a peak of 9.6 on Nov 21st.

US

There may be early signs the US cases are coming down – but this could easily be the impact of one less day of testing due to Thanksgiving. We’ll see when the testing data resumes. Fatalities in the US have increased dramatically – from an average of 2 fatalities per million per day – to now well over 4 fatalities per million per day.

Lets put these in absolute terms:

• US case average was 34k per day around Sept 12th – and was 170,000 on Nov 26th. Thats a 5x increase.
• Daily average fatalities were 714 on September 10th – and were almost 1,600 on Nov 26th
• Deaths in November are almost 31,000 people – a 30% increase over the prior month.
• US has recorded 3.6 million cases alone in November. That’s about 20% more than September and October combined

California shows decisive leadership – LA bans outdoor dining

There are some encouraging signs that some states in the US are taking decisive action. It has been reported that California has banned outdoor dining in LA.

Before people squalk at that – look at the data. The number of cases in CA has more than doubled in November from that of October.

In LA county, population 10 million, new covid cases now are almost 4x the level at the end of October. This is a sharply rising rate of infection.

South Dakota is starting to show improvement

South Dakota is starting to show improvement. Its almost at the level of France’s peak. As you can see – the fatality rate is still extremely high. Daily deaths now are 20x those of August. The COVID response in the North & South Dakota has been slow and reactive. See: COVID Capitulation: North Dakota governor changes tack and issues mask mandate