Peru – the worst impacted country in the world for COVID – shows sustained improvement

Some good news for Peru

Peru leads the world in reported deaths per capita. As you can see from the table below – almost 2x the number of the second country in the table. Thats a total of almost 200,000 deaths on a population of 32 million people

Improving trend

Current fatalities are now just 1.2 per million per day. The best result in many months.

A similar story for Brazil

Improvement – but 3 fatalities per million per day is still too high

The Driver: Vaccinations

The chart below shows steady progress in a rollout of vaccinations commencing around May 2021. Levels are still relatively low: as of Sept 4th 26% of the population are fully vaccinated. Seems like the case curve started to fall sustainably in June – which fits the profile of the vaccination curve with 1 month lag – as we would expect.

Is herd immunity a driver? Unlikely. Almost 2m people have been diagnosed and presumed recovered from COVID – which is 6% of the population. Assume that’s 2 to 5x underreported – that still shows this population is no way near the level of exposure to generate herd immunity.

Well done Peru in clearly targetting potential vulnerable populations with your vaccine rollout.

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