The Northern Surge

This picture shows it all. The surge of cases that gripped the sourth recently is on a northern expansion. Once again, North Dakota is recording high levels of COVID – but this time – Montana also. I recently reported on Alaska.

Fortunately the top 14 states (from Alaska to Michigan) have a population of just 51 million people or about 16% of the US population.

That means that the improved data in the southern states is able to pull down the US average stats – which continue to improve – but are still not where they need to be.

But across the country, fatality rates are much too high:

The US had over 50,000 deaths in September 2021 – only 3 other months have exceeded that figure. Recall the situation in April 2020 – at the begining of the covid pandemic when the US recorded 56,000 deaths. We were almost at the exact same number of deaths last month!

League tables:

In this scale, anything greater than 2 is bad. Texas in position 10 – is very bad – given its large population – but the numbers for the top 10 states are very bad. Likely driven by cases exceeding hospital capacity.

The table below is in actual numbers (not per capita). 250 people are currently dying per day in Texas; 51 in my home state of TN.

Arkansas population 3 million

Alaska is still struggling – but with a very small population of 700,000 – about the same as the county I live in (Davidson County)

Here you see the Montana charts (population 1 million)

North Dakota – population 760,000

Tennessee (population 7 million) – Example of a southern state getting better. But still a long way to go.

Texas (population 28 million) is also getting better for new cases; but fatalities are far too high

New York has contained Delta – but still a little higher than desirable.

Hawaii is in marked contrast to Alaska:

Connecticut seems to be getting it about right – but the data is lumpy – so watch this space. Not sure what drive the sudden spike at the end of September – likely some kind of adjustment in the numbers.

California is doing well – especially for a state of 40 million people

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