Over 50 million covid cases in the US

Startling fact: the US has recorded over 50 million cases of COVID since inception. Our total (as of Dec 24th) is around 51 million – and with an average of just over 150,000 new cases per day. Without a doubt, Omicron is now fueling a fresh set of growth – as we can see from the hotspots in the chart below.

An in aggregate the impact on the US is significant:

So far this month, over 3 million new covid cases, and 29,000 deaths have been recorded. Expect close to 40,000 deaths by the end of the month. At this point I can’t help reflect how we were at ‘only’ 9000 deaths in the month of July. The world has moved on; Delta took hold; and now Omicron is spreading rapidly.

Here are the current fatality hot spots – all expressed in per capita numbers:

Note: Tennessee is likely due to a data anomaly – or a catch up recording of deaths that were previously not reported. The New York Times data shows a large spike in deaths on Dec 23rd.

NY cases have risen sharply. Fatalities appear to be stable – but we do not have a full month of data for December yet. Expect fatalities in Dec to be at least 50% higher than the prior 3 month average:

Michigan looks precarious:

Seems to have gotten the Delta wave under control – reflected in the lower case levels recently.

But zoom out to the monthly trend – and this looks like a health care system under pressure. This could well be one of the deadliest months for Michigan.

Global view:

Globally the story is somewhat similar. While the UK, France and Italy have a much higher rate of COVID spread; fatalities are far below the US levels. Likely due to a higher levels of vaccinations.

Here’s a quick look at the league tables for current cases and fatalities before we explore some charts

Germany did have a significant ramp up in cases and fatalities, but enacted restrictions on those who were unvaccinated and fatalities now seem to be levelling off.

South Africa; the country that detected Omicron has relatively few deaths from COVID

Eastern Europe is still suffering heavily from Delta – and likely Omicron as well

There are very high current fatality rates in these countries:

Russia has high fatalities but low case numbers; likely reflecting insufficient testing

The sun contibues to shine in South America:

The Southern hemisphere (excluding South Africa) is doing very well. Maybe we should have taken that trip to Costa Rica after all!

There’s no doubt about Brazil’s progress month over month:

Or that of Peru:

Oh well Costa Rica – maybe we’ll visit next year:

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