Florida Spikes Across Many Counties

Almost 10,000 newly diagnosed cases of COVID in a single day.

Now that is saying something. Only NY has recorded more cases in a single day – 12,274 cases recorded on April 4th 2020. Think about that – NY cases peaked almost 3 months before Florida’s own record setting day. But Florida may not have peaked yet.

As I looked into the data, I realized this isn’t limited to a few counties. Its across the board. Take a look at the table below. Its shows those counties in Florida with populations greater than 100,000 – that have the highest rate of new case creation. These are 7 day average cases – to eliminate one off spikes and focus on the sustained trends.

1 week increase represents the change in weekly average over a 1 week period. In Pasco for example the weekly average is up 257% over that a week ago.

Contagious is the sum of all of the new cases over the last 2 weeks. In Miami-Dade, population 2.7m – there are at least 9,645 contagious people. Likely many more – as asymptomatic people either may not be tested, or others may not have been tested yet.

County  New Cases per million  1 week increasePopulationContagious
Orange437161%1,393,452          5,707
Hillsborough370110%1,471,968          5,517
Martin34220%161,000             680
Miami-Dade34188%2,716,940          9,645
Pinellas33371%974,996          3,478
Collier32232%384,902          1,440
Duval321195%957,755          2,858
Seminole305112%471,826          1,443
Manatee303100%403,253          1,265
Lee26053%770,577          2,120
Osceola242225%375,751             811
Polk239119%724,777          1,716
Broward23563%1,952,778          5,118
Palm Beach23118%1,496,770          4,095
Pasco226257%553,947          1,109
Indian River21946%159,923             415
Highlands207267%106,221             202
Escambia198117%318,316             626
Alachua190155%269,043             492
St. Lucie17721%328,297             693
St. Johns174142%264,672             449
Brevard173167%601,942          1,002
Lake16697%367,118             634
Volusia148128%553,284             817
Sarasota136127%433,742             574
Okaloosa109109%210,738             231
Leon106138%293,582             306
Hernando103300%193,920             172
Worst affected counties in Florida (those with >100,000 people)

The only relatively good news in Florida is that total fatalities per million since the begining of the COVID crisis are about 156, and for NY, the number is 1,637. So total deaths per million are still 10x greater than in Florida.

Expect an increase in fatalities in Florida – possibly to above 8 fatalities per million per day by end of July – if past fatality trends hold.

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