Florida Spikes Across Many Counties

Almost 10,000 newly diagnosed cases of COVID in a single day.

Now that is saying something. Only NY has recorded more cases in a single day – 12,274 cases recorded on April 4th 2020. Think about that – NY cases peaked almost 3 months before Florida’s own record setting day. But Florida may not have peaked yet.

As I looked into the data, I realized this isn’t limited to a few counties. Its across the board. Take a look at the table below. Its shows those counties in Florida with populations greater than 100,000 – that have the highest rate of new case creation. These are 7 day average cases – to eliminate one off spikes and focus on the sustained trends.

1 week increase represents the change in weekly average over a 1 week period. In Pasco for example the weekly average is up 257% over that a week ago.

Contagious is the sum of all of the new cases over the last 2 weeks. In Miami-Dade, population 2.7m – there are at least 9,645 contagious people. Likely many more – as asymptomatic people either may not be tested, or others may not have been tested yet.

County	New Cases per million	1 week increase	Population	Contagious
Orange	437	161%	1,393,452	5,707
Hillsborough	370	110%	1,471,968	5,517
Martin	342	20%	161,000	680
Miami-Dade	341	88%	2,716,940	9,645
Pinellas	333	71%	974,996	3,478
Collier	322	32%	384,902	1,440
Duval	321	195%	957,755	2,858
Seminole	305	112%	471,826	1,443
Manatee	303	100%	403,253	1,265
Lee	260	53%	770,577	2,120
Osceola	242	225%	375,751	811
Polk	239	119%	724,777	1,716
Broward	235	63%	1,952,778	5,118
Palm Beach	231	18%	1,496,770	4,095
Pasco	226	257%	553,947	1,109
Indian River	219	46%	159,923	415
Highlands	207	267%	106,221	202
Escambia	198	117%	318,316	626
Alachua	190	155%	269,043	492
St. Lucie	177	21%	328,297	693
St. Johns	174	142%	264,672	449
Brevard	173	167%	601,942	1,002
Lake	166	97%	367,118	634
Volusia	148	128%	553,284	817
Sarasota	136	127%	433,742	574
Okaloosa	109	109%	210,738	231
Leon	106	138%	293,582	306
Hernando	103	300%	193,920	172

The only relatively good news in Florida is that total fatalities per million since the begining of the COVID crisis are about 156, and for NY, the number is 1,637. So total deaths per million are still 10x greater than in Florida.

Expect an increase in fatalities in Florida – possibly to above 8 fatalities per million per day by end of July – if past fatality trends hold.