Global Comparison

A quick update on the diverging paths of the US & Brazil versus Europe.

Lets look at fatalities – comparing US with a basket of European countries that in total have a similar population to that of the US. See chart below.

To keep the time axis equivalent to the different starting points of the virus in each county, the clock starts for each country on the day of the 100th death.

Europe has been below 50 deaths per day for the last 2 weeks. The US is over 500 (even ignoring the NJ adjustment noted below). Brazil has been over 1,000 deaths per day for the past week.

The point where Europe starts to diverge from the US is around day 55. From this point you see the European covid deaths decline sustainably. The big message here is simply that US deaths have not fallen to the same level as those of Europe. We never reached those low levels. Essentially – Europe kept the focus – but the US seemingly lost its focus.

Declining death rates for most of the curve – but is the US bending up?

Lets look at the case data to illustrate the problem further. The US is now at over 50,000 new cases per day. That’s higher than the numbers recorded in March or April.

Europe has been well below 1,000 per day for the past week – and for the past few days has been below 300 per day.

Brazil daily new case aveage is around 37,000 (Brazil has a population of 208m – so prorating that for the US would give around 57,000 daily cases).

So – there we have it – the US has more than 50x the daily case load as the European Countries in this group – and more than 10x the average daily deaths.

Notes on the data:

1) – European cases spike negative around day 107 due to UK decision to change COVID methodology and remove about 20,000 fatalities and cases from their data set.

2) The large spike in the US curve around day 100 – is due to NJ adding 1877 deaths as part of a methodology adjustment. Ignore that spike and look at the trend. It has been declining – but we are now starting to see it uptick around day 115.

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