Arizona finally bends the curve

New cases have started to fall in Arizona – but deaths are the highest in the nation – at 10.7 deaths per million people per day. New cases are an average of 431 per million per day – down 13% over the past week. Deaths will most likely continue to increase over the short term. Average daily deaths increased 30% over the past week.

Will Arizona continue the progress on case reduction – and return to the levels before May? Time will tell. They have a very long way to fall to get back to normal and we soon face the prospect of school reopening.

Arizona hospital capacity still looks exceeded from my stats and still facing almost a record number of people recently diagnosed with covid (about 100,000 have been newly diagnosed in the last month). This will likely translate into 1,000 to 3,000 more deaths state wide in the next 30 days, potentially doubling the current total of 2,768 deaths since the begining of the crisis.

National Fatalities

Heatmap of new fatalities per million of population. Arizona stands out – as does the area around Florida / South Carolina

National New Cases

New case creation – still far higher than accetpable – except for the very North East part of this picture!

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