With average daily fatalities at a record high, unfortunately – fatalities will get worse over the next month. Still no sign of bending the curve here.

# of contagious people are 6x greater than the prior peak.

Lets look at case load and contagious people – based on confirmed COVID case data. Back in April – Miami had a peak daily average new case figure of 435 on April 8th. As you can see – that resulted in the first hump of this curve (in blue) shortly thereafter on April 15th of 5650 people contagious (those diagnosed in a 2 week period). The number of people who were coping with COVID (assumed to be a 1 month period) – peaked at 10,709 on April 28th. Thru April 30th – Miami recorded 12,000 cases and 352 deaths.

So – putting this together – we have – about 1 week after peak daily average cases, then the number of contagious people will peak; and about 20 days after the peak in average cases, the case load will peak.

Where do we stand today. Average daily cases are 2,620 (that’s 6x worse than the prior peak) and no sign of peaking as yet. The number of contagious people are 34,000 (that’s also 6x higher); and the number of people coping is 50,400 – which is about 5x higher.

That has got to put a huge strain on hospitals in that county

Deaths have never been higher – currently at about 19 per day. The prior highest number (7 day average) in April was 16.7. But deaths are a lagging indicator – the April numbers I mentioned above took until May 10th to work thru their cycle. As such we can expect average daily deaths in August in Miami to be much higher than today.

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