I’m looking at the fatality data for Tennessee – and looking at the counties with relatively high number of deaths. Shelby County, population almost 1 million has the highest number of deaths of any county in Tennessee. Shelby is home to Memphis.
At the end of May – daily average new cases were 95 per day. Not that different from end of April of 79 per day.
Fast forward to today – new cases are an average of 395 per day. That’s almost 4x as bad as a month ago. July has to-date recorded 53 deaths. A large part of the total of 245 deaths the county has recorded since inception.
The picture in Davidson County is also very similar. Bear in mind that Davidson has a smaller population than Shelby so the current numbers per capita are actually slightly worse.
In both counties, the current high level of new case creation is not adequately baked in to hospitalization or fatality stats.
Sobering thought: At end of May – average daily fatalities were less than 1 per day in Davidson County; today they are more than 4x higher. With the current level of new cases being added, don’t expect that number to fall anytime in the next month.
In 28 days private schools start back with in person classes.
I wish the fatality and case data were as they were 28 days ago (June 24th). We don’t have much time to get this back on track.