In search of good news, Florida may have peaked… but hospital burden will continue for some time

The 7 day average for new cases in Florida has fallen by about 10% in the last week. Peak new cases per millio was 584, the current figure is 488. That’s welcome news. In plain numbers – that’s around 10,000 new cases per day – versus a peak of about 15,000 per day on 12th July.

The impact of multiple days of high case count however is a large population of people who are coping with covid (i.e. diagnosed in the last month)

The pressure is not off the hospitals yet. By my estimates – hospitals are still at about 80% capacity.

For comparison – Arizona bent the case curve sooner – but still exceeding hospital capacity from what I can tell. It takes a while for those large daily new case numbers to clear out of the COVID pipeline.

Any bending of the curve is welcome news!

Other states with significant weekly reductions in new cases are:

  • Arizona (-17%),
  • Iowa (-17%),
  • Montana (-17%),
  • Connecticut (-11%),
  • Texas (-10%)

The aggregate of these however is still not quite enough to bend the overall US curve – but the rate of growth is slowing (currently about a 7% increase in daily case average week over week).

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