Improvement: Fewer Worst Counties; US bends the curve again

Good news, there are fewer counties reaching the “worst large counties” list. Currently 188 counties meet the criteria of greater than 100,000 population, and greater than 200 daily cases per million per day.

This data is also having an impact on the overall US data for new cases – which is now showing signs of clear improvement. Fatalities data is still on the rise across the US, as this lags case data.

The most notable reduction has been in Texas with 10 counties that appeared on the prior list, now removed from this list; partially offsetting that are 3 counties that were added to this list (that did not appear in the prior list) – namely Johnson, Parker and Taylor.

Florida remains the state with the largest number of counties on the list – at 30. Followed by Georgia (22) and Texas (21).

For all the news about California exceeding 500,000 covid cases, only 13 counties in California make the list.

Tennessee currently has 12 counties on the list – Shelby, Davidson and Washington leading the daily case averages.

A quick look at the top 3 counties for new cases

Cameron County, Texas has the #1 spot for largest number of cases and fatalities per capita. With a population of 423,000, Cameron County has daily average 1054 new cases per million, and 57 fatalities per million. Currently their deaths from COVID are close to 5x the seasonal flu level.

Cameron County, TX has experienced an explosion in cases and fatalities in the past month

Unfortuantely, counties like this in Texas drive up the overall fatality rate. Texas currently has the worst fatality rate in the US. Currently about 4.4% of COVID cases result in death in Texas.

Miami Dade, Florida has the #2 spot. Currently at 1017 new cases per million per day. Miami population is 2.7m – so that translates into over 2700 new cases per day. Average daily fatalities are 14 per million – so about 38. Miami looks like it may have bent the curve on cases; lets hope and pray for more progress.

Nueces, Texas has the #3 spot. With a population of 362,000 – the currently daily new cases figure of 836 per million is very high as is the fatality level of 18 per million per day. Nueces looked like it had bent the curve, but cases have recently risen.

Davidson County, TN

A quick look at my home county, shows significant improvement in the rate of new case creation – but still higher than at the end of June. Fatalities have reduced in the recent data – and 2.5 per million per day is below the current US average of 3.5. Davidson is now #33 on the worst counties list. A significant improvement over the past few weeks.

Another piece of good news, Tennessee has one of the best COVID success rates in the country. Less than 1% of people who contract COVID have passed away. You can see this in the below chart – while Davidson County has 2.5 fatalities per million per day, compare that to the charts above – many of which are in double digits.

Full List

Here’s the full list of the current worst counties in America.

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