Exponential Growth Continues in India

India is close to recording 100,000 new cases per day. On 9/11/2020 it recorded 96,551 cases, on the prior day 95,735. The 7 day moving average is now 90,000 cases.

By contrast, the US daily average has now fallen to 36,000 cases per day.

India will lead the world in cases in 1 month

At the current rate, even ignoring the growth curve of India, India will exceed the US number of cases in about 35 days. With the current trajectory – likely a lot sooner.

Take a look at the daily case data:

  • 1st June India was recording 7,000 cases per day;
  • End June = 18,000 cases per day
  • End July = 50,000 per day
  • End Aug = 74,000 per day
  • Sept 11th = 89,000 per day

The current fatality rate in India is a lot lower than most countries – so it would take possibly a year at current differences in daily death rates for India to take over the #1 position from the US.

India has a very large population

Reminder – India has 1.3bn people – so although these numbers are large in absolute terms – always read them in the context of the population size. That said the exponential growth is surely a significant concern.

When the moment crosses that the US is not number 1 for cases, I wonder how the media will report it! Up until now they haven’t shown an ability to focus on per capita numbers – but I’m betting that may change soon. The US media likes to keep the US #1 on the list of bad news (in my view). That’s necessary to attract the headlines – but that’s not the mission of my blog (let the data speak for itself).

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