India is close to recording 100,000 new cases per day. On 9/11/2020 it recorded 96,551 cases, on the prior day 95,735. The 7 day moving average is now 90,000 cases.
By contrast, the US daily average has now fallen to 36,000 cases per day.
India will lead the world in cases in 1 month
At the current rate, even ignoring the growth curve of India, India will exceed the US number of cases in about 35 days. With the current trajectory – likely a lot sooner.
Take a look at the daily case data:
- 1st June India was recording 7,000 cases per day;
- End June = 18,000 cases per day
- End July = 50,000 per day
- End Aug = 74,000 per day
- Sept 11th = 89,000 per day
The current fatality rate in India is a lot lower than most countries – so it would take possibly a year at current differences in daily death rates for India to take over the #1 position from the US.
India has a very large population
Reminder – India has 1.3bn people – so although these numbers are large in absolute terms – always read them in the context of the population size. That said the exponential growth is surely a significant concern.
When the moment crosses that the US is not number 1 for cases, I wonder how the media will report it! Up until now they haven’t shown an ability to focus on per capita numbers – but I’m betting that may change soon. The US media likes to keep the US #1 on the list of bad news (in my view). That’s necessary to attract the headlines – but that’s not the mission of my blog (let the data speak for itself).
JF Insights 