Reasons to be positive!

Checking through my stats I found some reasons to be positive. Here goes.

Photo by Olenka Sergienko on

1) US fatality rate is improving.

Fewer people who test positive are dying from the virus – both in numbers and in percentages.

In the early stage of COVID in the US, average daily deaths were well over 1500 per day – and as high as 2700. Case data was probably heavily under reported and so fatality percentages are not reliable at that time. You can see this in the chart – with percentages exceeding 10%.

Then through June – we we at an average of about 800 or so deaths per day. The fatality rate (blue line) was more consistent at about 3.3%.

Now when we look at the last month, the fatality rate has halved to about 1.6%. Average daily deaths over the same period are approximately 1,000. However for the last 17 days – average daily deaths have fallen below 1,000.

Summary: Fewer people who get COVID are dying.

2) Many counties have substantially improved

We can provide evidence for that in my “Worst Counties of America” chart. Recall in late July that over 200 large counties were on this list. Now only 75 counties are on the list! The criteria is population > 100,000 and daily new cases per million greater than 200.

Whereas at one time Florida and Arizona led the way, in this report, Florida now only has 3 large counties with elevated COVID levels. Well done Florida. Arizona has no large counties on the list. Amazing Arizona! Keep it up. My home state of Tennessee has only 1 county on the list (Knox). My home county of Davidson – once in the top 10 in the US – is now no longer on the list!!

It seems like more and more counties across America have realized that wearing masks, and social distancing works. Lets help get that message to the last remaining hot spots…..

Current hot spots:

In summary

We may not be getting this message from the media – but the gradual improvement IS getting results – and the fatality rate, and number of people dying is falling.

Mask up people!

Photo by Anna Shvets on

3 thoughts on “Reasons to be positive!

  1. Julian, Yay! Good post. And great news about Davidson.

    I just finished writing a book on our life during quarantine for my girls. It is getting printed and hopefully will be here in about 2 weeks. I’d love to show you and Christine when it arrives. Perhaps at a socially distanced coffee or something.

    In the final analysis, I concluded that we gained more as a family than we lost over the past 6 months. Though certainly I would never want another pandemic and can’t wait for COVID to disappear. Best, Lori

    Sent from my iPhone



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