Approve the vaccine for our kids. Delta is omnipresent, leadership is not only lacking, its counterproductive. Louisiana spikes for the 4th time and hits unprecedented levels of cases.

As some of you may know, in the early days of COVID monitoring, I posted on the worst counties in America. This measures how widespread COVID is impacting counties across America. i.e. not just looking at one or two large cities – but considering if the impact is more widely felt.

Criteria for the list is those counties with more than 100,000 population – and with new cases greater than 200 per million per day. In September 2020 we had managed to get the list down to 75; by Nov 2020 it was around 400; now in August 2021 we are back to 465.

Digest that for a moment. 465 large counties across America have elevated rates of covid transmission. Texas for example has 39 counties meeting the criteria above; Florida 36; California 34. (Tennessee has 13)

Now – some may argue that many are vaccinated; we are in a new wave where more infections doesn’t necessarily mean as many fatalities in the past. Well lets look at those counties with the highest current fatality rates:

Counties with highest current fatality rates:

State	County	New Cases per million	New Fatalities per million	County Pop
Louisiana	Tangipahoa	1150	29	134,758
Texas	Nueces	1314	20	362,294
Louisiana	Livingston	1073	19	140,789
Mississippi	Hinds	763	17	231,840
Alabama	Mobile	1050	15	413,210
Louisiana	Rapides	1504	13	129,648
Louisiana	East Baton Rouge	870	13	440,059
North Carolina	Robeson	857	13	130,625
Texas	Potter	596	13	117,415
Louisiana	Ascension	1114	12	126,604
Louisiana	Calcasieu	983	12	203,436
Oregon	Douglas	1550	12	110,980
South Carolina	Pickens	962	12	126,884
Texas	Randall	603	12	137,713
Alabama	Houston	737	11	105,882
Louisiana	St. Tammany	1252	11	260,419
Mississippi	Jackson	1497	11	143,617
Missouri	Greene	382	11	293,086
Alabama	Calhoun	643	10	113,605
Arkansas	Sebastian	798	10	127,827
Louisiana	Terrebonne	1964	10	110,461
Louisiana	Ouachita	1292	10	153,279
Louisiana	Jefferson	994	10	432,493
Louisiana	Caddo	903	10	240,204
Mississippi	Rankin	1378	10	155,271
North Carolina	Gaston	615	10	224,529
North Carolina	Moore	615	10	100,880
South Carolina	Lexington	957	10	298,750

Here’s a geographic map by state:

Mississippi and Louisiana are literally off the charts. Current per capital fatality rates in those states are almost 10x that of many other states.

Here’s the data in table form.

Louisiana – how not to handle COVID – worse than ever

The level of cases in Louisina is at unprecedented levels. Only in the very first wave (April 2020) did the fatality rate peak (13.9 deaths per million per day) – but current levels are very close to exceeding that level (12.2).

Here’s an easier to see monthly trend:

Monthly deaths peaked in April 2020 – at 1,665 – and came close to that level again in January 2021 (1,371). So far in August we are at ~900 – and likely to exceed 1200 by the end of the month.

If there was any reason not to have faith that we as a society will do whatever is necessary to protect our own self interest then Louisiana is the case in point.

As an example, East Baton Rouge has had 65 deaths so far this month in a population of 440,000. For more on Baton Rouge click here. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_ae0ba3d6-0204-11ec-a518-57118752dde3.html

Little wonder the overall US fatality rate is rising

So far this month almost 13,000 people have died from COVID; that’s sharply up from 8,400 recorded last month. Average deaths are now 800 per day.

Its no wonder that the US is preparing to encourage booster shots. The current accelerating rate of infections and increased transmissibility of Delta – mean that case numbers are almost certain to increase significantly in the short term. Faced with news that the vaccine potency reduces over time; stepping forward with a wave of boosters – especially for the vulnerable populations is especially important.

If the US follows the same path as last year (through the traditional holiday period); its very likely COVID will still be around in Jan 2022.

Given the experience of Louisiana – is it even wise to hope for the best….far better to plan for the worse – and to assume we’re living with this thing next year. Under that assumption – its critical to approve the release of vaccine for our children.

If Governors of Texas and Tennessee can issue decrees banning the use of face masks in schools; on the grounds that parents have their own kids best interests at heart; then provide us parents with the tools to protect our children. At this point, many states (those in RED on the charts above) have proven they have lacked the ability to manage this crisis.