100,000 Deaths

It took 71 days since the 100th death for the US to reach 100,000 fatalities. That’s devastating outcome that none of us would have predicted or expected as we started the new year. Our daily lives have been changed significantly.

However grim that milestone of deaths is, the daily data is getting better. The stock markets are expecting a quick return to normalcy. Disney is making plans to reopen its theme parks. Consider the Nasdaq – on 2nd Jan it was at 9,092. At its low point around Mar 23rd it was at 6,631. Yesterday it closed at 9,412. Positive for the year.

S&P not quite as good a story – from 3200 at the beginning of the year, to 2200 at the low, to a current level of 3,036.

DJIA 28,868 on 2nd Jan – to 18,591 (down 36%) on March 23rd to 25,548 (down 12% from start of the year).

Lets look at Disney – opened the year at 148 – had a low point of 85 on Mar 23rd – and yesterday closed at 121. The stock price indicates it won’t be a complete return to normalcy – but equally so – it won’t be a continuation of the feeling of despair and doom we felt in March.

Question – was the depth of our despair on March 23rd – or do we feel it today – when the milestone number of 100,000 deaths has been reached?

Here’s some other context… If the US had followed the Italian curve – the 100,000 death would have come on Day 39 – around April 26th – a full month earlier. Following the Spanish curve the milestone would have hit April 14th. Its further evidence that the US curve was flatter.

I’m feeling optimistic today that we have this thing moving in the right direction…. how are you feeling?

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