Recall my June 18th post predicting Arizona deaths would rise to possibly 7 fatalities per million per day. Well Arizona is exceeding that with 8.4 fatalities per million per day.
Arizona daily cases peaked on June 30th – so there is hope that fatalities will start to fall again – perhaps in a month. The immediate 1 month outlook is uncertain since Arizona hospitals are likely at max capacity (see below), and the state still doesn’t look like it has taken enough action to address the spread.
Here’s some comparisons of the data – June 18th (left picture) versus July 13th (right picture).
Cases:
Fatalities:
The fatality heat map has largely shifted to the south – in particular Artizona, Mississippi, South Carolina
How does hospital capacity look today? 7 states are on the cusp of exceeding 50% capacity
Arizona has exceeded capacity – Florida; Utah; South Carolina; Idaho; Texas; Nevada are all around 50%. .
See below – left hand side June 18th, right hand side July 13th. On June 18th – only 11 states were exceeding 20% capacity due to COVID; on July 13th – that number has almost doubled to 20.
JF Insights 