The US Big Picture: Over 1.2m Coping / Contagious today

For 4 of the last 7 days the US has exceeded 60,000 new COVID cases per day. That has now pulled up the 7 day moving average to about 58,000 per day. Over the last 2 weeks alone approx 750,000 people have been tested positive. That means – they are all contagious and should be self isolating.

Assuming people take fully a month to recover and you get a population of people who are currently ‘coping’ with COVID of about 1.2m. Here’s that in pictures:

Adding 58,000 new cases per day – means that the number of contagious people is growing very rapidly. Basically it’s never been higher (let alone without thinking about the people who have COVID but haven’t tested). I month ago daily new cases were 20,000 per day.

So think about that – every day ~60,000 new people are getting added to the caseload – and only 20,000 people a day are getting to day 31 and hopefully being fully recovered.

The impact of the potential people who are suffering with COVID and who may need hospital treatment is huge. The previous peak caseload was about 913,000 on May 5th.

Fatalities trending up

On the chart below – you can see the fatalities starting to trend up – now an average of about 700 covid death per day (5 of the last 7 days have exceeded 900 deaths per day)

Prediction: COVID caseload will exceed 1.6m million by end July. Average daily deaths will exceed 1500 per day by Aug 14th.

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