Here’s a quick look at some charts for Davidson County, Tennessee – my home county – that is one of the worst counties in the USA for case growth.
Firstly – current case growth and fatalities:
Recall the Mayor first ordered a ‘safe at home’ order on March 22nd. About that time we can see that new cases were very low – about 20 new cases per day – and less than 1 fatality per week. Today – we are about 429 new cases per day – and average daily fatalities of 3.6
Case growth has been explosive throughout July – that has a cumulative impact on the number of people who are contagious and those who are coping with the virus. Take a look at this chart below. Around 5,609 of the 700,000 residents are CONFIRMED TESTED POSITIVE within the last 2 weeks and therefore contagious. In total 8,872 people are within a month of being tested positive – and therefore part of the caseload.
On March 22nd, the date of lockdown, the ‘caseload’ for Davidson County was 166 people! Today we are 53x greater than that!
Now – I’m not advocating going back to full shut down – as at the time – that seemed to be too draconian and not driven by real data (more fear than fact).
However NOW is the time for very serious measures to contain the spread of the virus. The data is telling us we need to do something to halt the spread. More than 1% of the people we are likely to come into is potentially contagious – and that is increasing rapidly. With the potential for school returning in the next 2 months – that means that this larger ‘contagious’ population will have a bigger opportunity to be transmitted.